Hindsight checks#
For each report section, what happened after publication (2001 or 2013) to September 2026, with verdicts on each key claim and primary sources.
Files#
| File | Words | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight check: LL1-00 (Preface, acknowledgements, contents, Ch1 Introduction) | 10,312 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000, Environmental Issue Report No 22 (2001), report pp. 1–16. Check window: publication (2001) to late September 2026. Checked:… |
| LL1-02 hindsight check: Ch. 2 “Fisheries: taking stock” (MacGarvin), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA 2001), pp. 17–30 | 9,887 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers evidence from 2001 to September 2026. |
| LL1-03 hindsight check: Radiation: early warnings; late effects | 10,132 | Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Chapter 3, pp. 31–37. Author: Barrie Lambert. Check covers 2001 to late September 2026. Prepared 25 September 2026. |
| LL1-04 hindsight check: Benzene (Infante), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 4, pp. 38–51 | 10,117 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers developments from 2001 to September 2026, with a few pre-2001 items the chapter did not cite, where they help weigh a claim. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. |
| LL1-05 hindsight check: Asbestos, from “magic” to malevolent mineral | 9,044 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), Chapter 5, pp. 52–63. Authors: David Gee and Morris Greenberg. |
| LL1-06 hindsight check: Ch6, PCBs and the precautionary principle | 9,823 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), chapter 6 by Janna G. Koppe and Jane Keys, pp. 64–75. Checked against developments up to 25 September… |
| LL1-07 hindsight check: Halocarbons, the ozone layer and the precautionary principle | 11,452 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), Chapter 7, pp. 76–83. Author: Joe Farman. |
| LL1-08 hindsight check: The DES story: long-term consequences of prenatal exposure | 8,855 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), Chapter 8, pp. 84–92. Authors: Dolores Ibarreta and Shanna H. Swan. |
| LL1-09 hindsight check: Antimicrobials as growth promoters: resistance to common sense | 11,224 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), Chapter 9, pp. 93–100. Authors: Lars-Erik Edqvist and Knud Børge Pedersen. |
| LL1-10 hindsight check: Sulphur dioxide (Semb), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 10, pp. 101–109 | 11,106 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026. Where they help weigh a claim, it also uses a few older primary sources that the chapter did not use, such as Hansard and the… |
| LL1-11 hindsight check: Ch11 MTBE in petrol as a substitute for lead | 8,473 | Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000 (EEA Environmental Issue Report No 22, 2001), pp. 110–125. Authors: Martin Krayer von Krauss and Poul Harremoës. Editing finished 10 May 2001 (p.… |
| LL1-12 hindsight check: Great Lakes chemical contamination (Gilbertson), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 12, pp. 126–134 | 9,183 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, forecasts and recommendations. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. The chapter’s… |
| LL1-13 hindsight check: Tributyltin (TBT) antifoulants (Santillo, Johnston and Langston), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 13, pp. 135–148 | 10,533 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. |
| LL1-14 hindsight check: Hormones as growth promoters (Bridges and Bridges), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 14, pp. 149–156 | 10,609 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. “My calculation” marks arithmetic I did myself from the cited figures. |
| LL1-15 hindsight check: ‘Mad cow disease’ 1980s–2000 (van Zwanenberg and Millstone), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 15, pp. 157–167 | 10,400 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. “Phillips” means the BSE Inquiry report (October 2000), and “para” means a paragraph of… |
| LL1-16 hindsight check: Twelve late lessons (Editorial team), Late lessons from early warnings (EEA, 2001), Ch. 16, pp. 168–191 | 12,513 | Checked 25 September 2026. This check covers what happened between 2001 and September 2026 that bears on the synthesis chapter’s claims. Page numbers refer to the 2001 report. The chapter is cross-cutting, so the check… |
| Hindsight check: LL1-17 (Ch 17 Conclusions) | 11,902 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: the precautionary principle 1896–2000, Environmental Issue Report No 22 (2001), Chapter 17 “Conclusions”, report pp. 192–194. Check window: publication (2001) to… |
| LL2-00 hindsight check: Acknowledgements, Preface, Ch 1 Introduction, Part A introduction | 7,916 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), report pp. 1–16. Hindsight window: 2013 to late September 2026. Checked against the digest and the source extract… |
| LL2-02 hindsight check: The precautionary principle and false alarms — lessons learned (Hansen and Tickner), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 2, pp. 17–45 | 10,358 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| LL2-03 hindsight check: Lead in petrol ‘makes the mind give way’ (Needleman and Gee), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 3, pp. 46–75 | 11,589 | Checked 25 September 2026. This check covers what happened between 2013 and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report pages. Herbert Needleman,… |
| LL2-04 hindsight check: Too much to swallow: PCE contamination of mains water (Ozonoff; panels by Rudén and Onasch), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 4, pp. 76–91 | 9,003 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-05 (Ch 5 Minamata disease: a challenge for democracy and justice) | 9,429 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 5, report pp. 92–130. Chapter by Yorifuji, Tsuda and Harada (pp. 92–120); panels by Grandjean (pp.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-06 (Ch 6 Beryllium’s ‘public relations problem’) | 9,207 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 6. The chapter is by David Michaels and Celeste Monforton (pp. 131–144), followed by a panel by Tee L.… |
| LL2-07 hindsight check: Tobacco industry manipulation of research (Bero; Panel 7.1 by Smith, Gilmore and Fooks), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 7, pp. 151–178 | 12,351 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| LL2-08 hindsight check: Vinyl chloride: a saga of secrecy (Soffritti, Sass, Castleman and Gee), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 8, pp. 179–202 | 10,006 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and late September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| LL2-09 hindsight check: The pesticide DBCP and male infertility (Bingham and Monforton; Box 9.2 by Albin), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 9, pp. 203–214 | 10,163 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. It looks mainly at what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026. It also… |
| LL2-10 hindsight check: Bisphenol A: contested science, divergent safety evaluations (Gies and Soto), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 10, pp. 215–239 | 10,186 | Checked 25 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-11 (Ch 11 DDT: fifty years since Silent Spring) | 9,094 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 11, by Henk Bouwman, Riana Bornman, Henk van den Berg and Henrik Kylin (report pp. 240–260; PDF pp.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-12 (Part B divider and Ch 12 Booster biocide antifoulants: is history repeating itself?) | 9,599 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), pp. 261–278. Pages 261–264 are the Part B divider, contents and panel list. Chapter 12 (pp. 265–278) is by… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-13 (Ch 13 Ethinyl oestradiol in the aquatic environment) | 10,727 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 13, by Susan Jobling and Richard Owen (pp. 279–307; text pp. 279–297, Table 13.1 p. 298). There are no… |
| LL2-14 hindsight check: Climate change: science and the precautionary principle | 8,144 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Chapter 14 (Hartmut Grassl and Bert Metz; Panel 14.1 by Malcolm MacGarvin), report pp. 308–346 (PDF pp. 310–348). Hindsight check… |
| LL2-15 hindsight check: Floods: lessons about early warning systems (Kundzewicz), Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch. 15, pp. 347–368 | 11,793 | Checked 25–26 September 2026. The check covers what happened between publication (January 2013) and September 2026 that bears on the chapter’s claims, evidence, predictions and recommendations. Page numbers are report… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-16 (Ch 16 Seed-dressing systemic insecticides and honeybees) | 9,748 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 16, by Laura Maxim and Jeroen van der Sluijs (report pp. 369–406; PDF pp. 371–408). The chapter includes… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-17 (Ch 17 Ecosystems and managing the dynamics of change) | 9,574 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 17, by Jacqueline McGlade and Sybille van den Hove. Panel 17.1 (“The last hunters”) is by McGlade alone.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-18 (Part C divider and Ch 18 Late lessons from Chernobyl, early warnings from Fukushima) | 11,937 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), pp. 429–457. Pages 429–431 are the Part C divider and contents list. Chapter 18 (pp. 432–457, including… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-19 (Ch 19 Hungry for innovation: pathways from GM crops to agroecology) | 13,286 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 19, by David Quist, Jack A. Heinemann, Anne I. Myhr, Iulie Aslaksen and Silvio Funtowicz (pp. 458–485;… |
| LL2-20 hindsight check: Invasive alien species: a growing but neglected threat? | 10,045 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Chapter 20 (Sarah Brunel, Eladio Fernández-Galiano, Piero Genovesi, Vernon H. Heywood, Christoph Kueffer and David M.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-21 (Ch 21 Mobile phone use and brain tumour risk: early warnings, early actions?) | 8,623 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 21, by Lennart Hardell, Michael Carlberg and David Gee (report pp. 509–529; PDF pp. 511–531). There are… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-22 (Ch 22 Nanotechnology: early lessons from early warnings) | 9,192 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 22, by Steffen Foss Hansen, Andrew Maynard, Anders Baun, Joel Tickner and Diana Bowman (report pp.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-23 (Part D front matter and Ch 23 Understanding and accounting for the costs of inaction) | 8,991 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013). Part D title page, contents and list of panels (pp. 561–563; no introductory text), and Ch 23 by Mikael Skou… |
| LL2-24 hindsight check: Ch24 “Protecting early warners and late victims” | 8,884 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), report pp. 581–606 (PDF pp. 583–608). Author: Carl Cranor. Panels by David Gee (24.1), Owen McIntyre (24.2) and a summary of… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-25 (Ch 25 Why did business not react with precaution to early warnings?) | 10,659 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Ch 25, by Marc Le Menestrel and Julian Rode (pp. 607–620; text pp. 607–617). There are no panels or replies.… |
| Hindsight check: LL2-26 (Part E introduction; Ch 26 Science for precautionary decision-making) | 11,939 | Source section: EEA, Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), Part E title page and contents (pp. 621–622) and Ch 26 by Philippe Grandjean (report pp. 623–640; PDF pp.… |
| LL2-27 hindsight check: Ch 27, “More or less precaution?” (David Gee) | 12,203 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation (EEA Report No 1/2013), report pp. 643–669 (text pp. 643–662). Hindsight window: 2013 to late September 2026. Checked against the digest and the source… |
| LL2-28 hindsight check: Ch 28 “In conclusion” (EEA 2013, report pp. 670–684) | 9,681 | Strand A working file. Checked on 26 September 2026. |
| LL2-A2 — Hindsight check: Annex 2, overview of Late lessons from early warnings vol. 1 | 10,668 | Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation, EEA Report No 1/2013, Annex 2, report pp. 701–716 (PDF 703–718). Checked against developments from 2013 to late September 2026. |
| LL2-A3 hindsight check: Annex 3, “An update of some case studies from vol. 1” | 8,330 | EEA Report No 1/2013, report pp. 717–737 (PDF 719–739). Hindsight window: 2013 to late September 2026. Working files: digest digests/LL2-A3.md; source text text/chunks/LL2-A3.txt. |